Genetic Luck – A Favoured Humanity?

Right here; right now. What are the odds?

So often – too often – we take our existence for granted. It didn’t have to be like this. We didn’t have to be here; we didn’t have to be here in this state of being. Things could have turned out very differently.

In Nature there are no guarantees or assurances with regard to survival. It’s a very uncertain world. There are so many variables; so many possibilities. There are so many things that have shaped the past, so many things that can impact the future. As a species, Nature owes humanity no favours. We are in no privileged position; we are no better than any other species.

And yet humanity does seem to have done quite well for itself. Over billions of years, when many have failed, we have managed to survive and develop; when many struggle in challenging environments, we seem to live relatively comfortable existences.

Such is the case and such is our relationship with our genes and our environment that many evolutionists argue that of all the factors that account for the existence of humankind, the most significant is that of luck. By chance, desirable and necessary genetic mutations occurred at the right time, just when we needed them. We have then been fortunate to have adopted the genetic pathways to get us where we are today. They have ensured our survival and our undeniable success as a species. We can therefore consider ourselves to have been lucky.

This perspective does, however, have one underlying assumption, that we’re generally pleased as to where we are at, that we consider ourselves to have done things right. That may be true in the sense that we can appreciate what we are, but not in regard to the fact that we don’t know what else we might have become. What have we missed out on? What else might we have achieved?

As with any evidence based analysis, we can see what is there; we can’t always see what is not there. We know what we have; we don’t always know what we don’t have.

We only think of ourselves as being lucky because we have a positive opinion as to humanity’s station in the world. If it was thought or shown that we had actually under-performed, that we could have achieved so much more then our assessment might not be quite so glowing.

We can too readily assume that we have done the best that was possible. This is not necessarily so. Some of our evolutionary choices may not have been all that they might have been. Who knows whether or not we could have evolved so much more? If we had chosen an alternative evolutionary route, could we have done even better for ourselves? To what extent have we missed out on opportunities or made evolutionary errors?

We might be pleased to win a box of chocolates in a raffle but when the star-prize is a holiday, it is only by winning the holiday that we would consider ourselves as being lucky. But then, if we meet someone who entered the raffle but won nothing, we would – with our box of chocolates – again consider ourselves to have been lucky.

Luck is a relative perspective. We judge luck both in relation to others and in relation to what might be achieved.

Certainly, there is an element of luck to our existence but mainly this is in terms of us having been able to avoid being unlucky. We’ve been lucky to not be unlucky.

If a sudden environmental change occurs and a species is not able to secure the mutational adaptations needed to survive that change then that species will disappear. They might struggle to produce the required mutational changes or they might struggle to adopt those required mutations in time. Dinosaurs could be considered as having been unlucky. A chance event brings about sudden, unexpected and forceful environmental change for which they were unable to adapt in time to.

In evolutionary development, a species only has to get mutational selection wrong once for it to be potentially disastrous. We can get it right countless times, each adding to our genetic strength. But one bad decision can be catastrophic for a species’ survival. Given that, over time, we would have had to make plenty of different evolutionary choices; we could easily have made a misguided, debilitating selection. To get it right so many times isn’t lucky but to get it wrong the once is unlucky.

This is particularly relevant when we bear in mind that we are undertaking this journey for the first time. Not only are there so many unknowns but with us having absolutely no experience in pursuing this evolutionary course we are bound to have made mistakes. It would be like trying to bake a cake having had no experience in a kitchen, we’re hardly likely to get a perfect result. We have been lucky that none of those mistakes have been too problematic.

Beyond the avoidance of these unlucky scenarios, can we suggest that our current evolutionary position is, in some way, down to luck, that luck has been a positive, contributory factor in our evolutionary success?

The key aspect of luck is that it happens by chance. It is not due to individual endeavours or actions. Occurrences happen that are out of our control. If those occurrences then bring good fortune we can consider ourselves to have been lucky.

In suggesting that our evolutionary development is based on luck, we may be underestimating our own involvement and importance in our continued survival.

Mutations are happening all the time in vast numbers. As our environment changes, we will be trying to seek out advantage. We will be actively looking for beneficial mutations. We’re not just waiting for them to happen. We are looking for that evolutionary edge. And then, having identified a potentially advantageous mutation we must make the necessary moves required to adopt the mutation. The fact that both the identification and the adoption of a mutational development require positive action on our part means that it cannot be down to chance.

We may not through our behaviours be able to actively determine or propogate genetic mutations – the amount we experience, the types of mutation or their viability – but we certainly have an important role in the selection process and determining which will be successful.

It is also worth noting that this active involvement – and the more active we are the better – means that we are more likely to find those genetic mutations that we are looking for. And although, at times, it may seem to be the case, it is misleading to suggest that, “the harder you work, the luckier you seem to be.”

Given that our survival will be dependent on us being able to identify and adopt those mutational adaptations which will help us. There will be some skill and understanding required in doing this. For it to be completely random it would suggest that there was no effort, no direction, no involvement on our part; that we have not had to make any important, future-determining genetic calls. Instead, we have just gone with the flow.

In gambling, if we randomly place our bet then any win would be down to luck. But if we know what we are doing or if we are following a betting strategy or system then the element of fortune is diminished.

One of the beauties of evolutionary development is that it is a very results-based process. If there are no gains being made from an evolutionary adaptation then that adaptation will be abandoned. If a species decides to explore a mutational opportunity it will quickly realise the value or not of this move. Evolutionary choices are therefore not based on luck but, largely, on the benefits attained, by the very process of evolutionary adaptation.

With specific regard to humanity and our development, it can’t have been luck to opt for a societal existence as an essential part of our evolutionary plan for survival. This behavioural shift would have required deliberate, purposeful, reasoned action. It could not have been a lucky chance event.

More generally, given that our behaviour is genetically driven, that we are merely genetic transporters, perhaps we are not giving our genes their due credit. They don’t need luck. Perhaps they know more than we think; perhaps they do actually know what they are doing.

A species does not survive – as the expression goes – “more by luck than by judgement”. Survival is about making the right decisions in an evolutionary process that demands both participation and positive outcomes. A species has to and does work at it. As such its survival cannot be considered as a matter of luck.

If our existence as a species is not founded on luck, what about us as individuals? Are we lucky to be alive? Are we lucky to be here in the great scheme of things?

Even though we might feel lucky, I would suggest that we too are just beneficiaries of the process. It is the process that has given us this opportunity to exist; it is our genes and their actions that have created us. As such, it would be difficult to describe it as luck.

We don’t say that we’ve been lucky when we turn the tap on and we get water out of it. There’s a whole lot of organisation and operational processes behind it. The same applies to our own existences.

It is our genes that are the shaping and controlling force behind our existence. They manage the levers of our lives. They keep us on an evolutionary track.