Right here: right now. What are the odds? And why us? It didn’t have to be us.
So often – too often – we take our existence for granted. It didn’t have to be like this. We didn’t have to be here; we didn’t have to be here in this state of being. Things could have turned out very differently.
In Nature, there are no guarantees or assurances with regard to our being or our survival. As a species, Nature owes humanity no favours. We are in no privileged position; we are no better than any other species.
And it’s a very uncertain world, operated by forces beyond our control.
On this speculative journey, there are just so many variables; so many possibilities; so many things that will have shaped our past; so many things that will impact our future.
And yet humanity does seem to have done quite well for itself. Over billions of years, even as many have failed, we have managed to survive and develop; in challenging environments, we seem to live relatively comfortable existences.
Such is the case, and such is our relationship with our genes and our environment, that many evolutionists argue that, among the factors that account for the existence of humankind, the most significant is luck.
It is by chance that desirable and necessary genetic mutations occurred at the right time, just when we needed them. We have, then, been fortunate to have adopted the genetic pathways that have brought us to where we are today. They have ensured our survival and our undeniable success as a species. Given how remarkable an achievement this is and how unlikely it is, we can therefore consider ourselves to have been exceedingly lucky.
This fortuitous perspective, however, has one underlying assumption: that we’re generally pleased with where we are and that we consider ourselves to have done things right. That may be true in the sense that we can appreciate what we are, but not in regard to the fact that we don’t know what else we might have become. What have we missed out on? What else might we have achieved?
As with any evidence-based analysis, we can see what is there; we can’t always see what is not there. We know what we have; we don’t always know what we don’t have.
We only think of ourselves as being lucky because we have a positive opinion of humanity’s station in the world. If it were thought or shown that we had actually underperformed and could have achieved much more, our assessment might not be quite so glowing.
We can too readily assume that we have done the best that was possible. This is not necessarily so. Some of our evolutionary choices may not have been as good as they might have been. Who knows whether or not we could have evolved so much more? If we had chosen an alternative evolutionary route, could we have done even better for ourselves? To what extent have we missed out on opportunities or made evolutionary errors?
We might be pleased to win a box of chocolates in a raffle, but when the star prize is a holiday, we would consider ourselves lucky only by winning the holiday. But then, if we met someone who entered the raffle but won nothing, we would again consider ourselves lucky.
Luck, it seems, is a relative perspective. We judge luck both in relation to others and in relation to what might be achieved.
Certainly, there is an element of luck to our existence, but mainly in terms of us avoiding bad luck. We’ve been lucky not to be unlucky. This backhanded good fortune might arise in a couple of ways:
Firstly, if a sudden environmental change occurs and a species is unable to secure the mutational adaptations it needs to survive that change, then that species will disappear. They might struggle to produce the required mutational changes or to adopt those mutations in time. Dinosaurs could be considered as having been unlucky. A chance event brings about sudden, unexpected and forceful environmental change, for which they were unable to adapt in time.
Secondly, in evolutionary development, a species only has to get mutational selection wrong once for it to be potentially disastrous. We can get it right countless times, each adding to our genetic strength. But one bad decision can be catastrophic for a species’ survival. Given that, over time, we would have had to make plenty of different evolutionary choices, we could easily have made a misguided, debilitating selection. In these circumstances, getting it right so many times isn’t lucky, but getting it wrong once could be considered unlucky.
This is particularly relevant given that we are undertaking this journey for the first time. Not only are there so many unknowns, but with us having absolutely no experience in pursuing this evolutionary course, we are bound to make mistakes. It would be like trying to bake a cake with no kitchen experience; we’re hardly likely to get a perfect result. We have been lucky that none of those mistakes have been too problematic.
Beyond avoiding these unlucky scenarios, we can also consider to what extent our current evolutionary position is, in some way, due to luck? Has luck been a positive, contributory factor in our evolutionary success?
The key aspect of luck is that it happens by chance. It is not due to individual endeavours or actions. Occurrences happen that are out of control. If those occurrences then bring good fortune, we can consider ourselves lucky.
In suggesting that our evolutionary development is based on luck, we may be underestimating our own involvement and importance in our continued survival.
Although we may not, through our behaviours, be able to actively determine the details of genetic mutations – the number we experience, the types of mutation, or their viability – we certainly have an important role in the selection process and in determining which will be successful.
Mutations are happening all the time in vast numbers. As our environment changes, we, directed by our genes, will be trying to seek out some advantage. It is the acquisition of this advantage that motivates and incentivises us to seek beneficial mutations, those that would be beneficial to us.
We’re not just waiting for them to happen. We are actively seeking out that evolutionary edge. And then, having identified a potentially advantageous mutation, we must take the necessary steps to adopt it. We must make that mutation a part of our reproductive allure.
The fact that both the identification and the adoption of a mutational development require positive action on our part means that it cannot be purely due to chance. There is an architectural intent to our existence.
This active involvement – and the more active we are, the better – means that we are more likely to find and acquire those genetic mutations that we are looking for.
Given that our survival will depend on our ability to identify and adopt mutational adaptations that help us, some skill and understanding will be required. For it to be completely random, it would suggest that there was no effort, no direction, no involvement on our part; that we have not had to make any important, future-determining genetic decisions; that, instead, we have just gone with the flow.
This is not the case. Our existence and circumstances are very dependent on our evolutionary behaviour and choices.
In gambling, if we randomly place our bet, then any win would be down to luck. But if we know what we are doing or if we are following a betting strategy or system, then the element of fortune is diminished. We may not be able to eliminate the element of luck altogether, but we should be careful not to overstate its role. The best poker players do not consistently win because they are lucky.
Another consideration that undermines the value of luck is that one of the beauties of evolutionary development is its very results-based nature. If there are no gains to be made from an evolutionary adaptation, it will be abandoned. If a species decides to explore a mutational opportunity, it will quickly realise the value or not of this move. Evolutionary choices are therefore not based on luck but, largely, on the benefits attained.
The very process of evolutionary adaptation is geared toward doing what is advantageous; if something works, then that must be the right way to go.
This results-based process of genetic adaptation can be compared to cooking a recipe. The more times you cook it and the more you tweak the ingredients – both what you include and the quantities you add – the more chances you have to improve the recipe.
If, on the other hand, something you try doesn’t work, then you don’t pursue it, and you go back to the previous recipe and think about what your next adaptive change will be. As a trial-and-error process, it is effective because the changes being made are small and subtle. They can be easily corrected.
With specific regard to humanity and our development, as we have suggested, perhaps our greatest evolutionary move was to adopt a societal existence. This behavioural shift – one that is contrary to all our natural instincts – would have required deliberate, purposeful, reasoned action. It could not have been a lucky, chance event.
After the initial, speculative steps were made, the results and benefits would have been so apparent that they would have encouraged the furthering of society. This is because, once a developmental course is proven and set, there is, within the evolutionary process, an innate, operational drive to progress and intensify that chosen path.
More generally, in considering the element of luck, given that our behaviour is genetically driven, that we, as individuals, are merely genetic transporters, perhaps we are not giving our genes their due credit. They don’t need luck. Perhaps they know more than we think; perhaps they do, actually, know what they are doing.
A species does not survive – as the expression goes – “more by luck than by judgement”. Survival is about making the right decisions in an evolutionary process that demands both participation and positive outcomes. A species has to and does work at it. As such, its survival cannot be considered a matter of luck.
If our existence as a species is not founded purely on luck, what about us as individuals? Are we lucky to be alive? Are we lucky to be here in the great scheme of things?
Even though we might feel lucky, we, too, are just beneficiaries of the process. It is the process that has given us this opportunity to exist; it is our genes and their actions that have created us. As such, it would be difficult to describe it as luck.
We don’t say we’ve been lucky when we turn the tap on and water comes out. There’s a whole lot of organisation and operational processes behind it. The same applies to our own individual existences.
It is our genes that shape and control our existence. They manage the levers of our lives. They keep us on an evolutionary track.
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